Chelsea’s dramatic rise from 10th place to Premier League champions in 2016-17 remains one of the most remarkable transformations in English football.

A decade ago, the Blues endured a disappointing campaign before Antonio Conte arrived and guided them to the title in his first season. Chelsea now finds themselves in a similar position after finishing 10th again, with Xabi Alonso taking charge and no European football on the schedule.

So, can the club repeat history?


A familiar starting point

Chelsea’s 2025-26 league campaign was remarkably similar to their 2015-16 season.

The Blues finished with 50 points in both campaigns, while their goalscoring and defensive records were almost identical. Last season, they scored only one goal more and conceded one more than they did a decade earlier, leaving them with the same goal difference and a comparable final position.


The 2015-16 season was particularly disappointing. Chelsea finished 31 points behind champions Leicester City and ended the campaign below Southampton, West Ham United and Stoke City. Few expected the club to challenge for the title just 12 months later.


However, the arrival of Conte changed everything. Chelsea initially used a back-four system during the 2016-17 campaign, but Conte switched to a three-man defence after a 3-0 defeat by Arsenal in the sixth match. The adjustment produced an immediate response, with Chelsea winning 13 consecutive league games.


That tactical flexibility could again become important under Alonso. The Spaniard’s Bayer Leverkusen team won the Bundesliga unbeaten in 2023-24 while regularly using a three-at-the-back system. His ability to find the right structure may prove vital if Chelsea are to become Premier League title contenders.


A huge points increase required

Conte’s Chelsea finished the 2016-17 season with 93 points, winning 18 more matches than they had in the previous campaign.

An equivalent improvement would require Alonso’s side to add 43 points to last season’s total. That would be an extraordinary leap and the biggest points increase required by any Premier League champion.


Leicester had previously set the benchmark by improving their total by 40 points in the season before their historic 2015-16 triumph. Chelsea may not need to reach 93 points this time, however. The points totals required to win the Premier League have fallen in recent seasons compared with the intense title races of the Guardiola-Klopp era.


In 2018-19, Manchester City collected 98 points and still needed to finish ahead of Liverpool, who ended the campaign with 97. By contrast, Arsenal’s title-winning total last season was the second-lowest since Leicester’s triumph 10 years ago.

Arsenal is expected to provide a stronger defence than Leicester managed after their title win, but the reduced points barrier could give Chelsea a more realistic opportunity.


Chelsea was better than 10th

Chelsea’s final position does not fully reflect their performances throughout the campaign.

Their underlying expected-goals statistics suggest that they were among the Premier League’s strongest teams. Based on expected goals, Chelsea ranked as the fourth-most dominant side in the division, slipping to fifth when penalties were excluded.

The major issue was their finishing.


Chelsea scored 58 goals from chances worth 66.3 expected goals, underperforming by eight goals. Only Crystal Palace and Wolverhampton Wanderers had poorer finishing records among Premier League teams.

A significant portion of that underperformance came during a disastrous spell in March and April under Liam Rosenior. During that run, Chelsea registered 73 shots with a combined expected-goals value of 5.5 but failed to score in five consecutive league matches. It was the first time in 114 years that the club had lost five straight league games without finding the net.


That dreadful sequence contributed to Rosenior’s dismissal and severely damaged Chelsea’s final league position. Whether the problem was poor finishing, bad luck or a deeper tactical issue is difficult to determine. However, it would be surprising if the Blues experienced another slump of the same scale over an entire season.


Alonso has already produced a miracle

Alonso’s previous work at Bayer Leverkusen offers Chelsea supporters genuine encouragement.

When he became Leverkusen manager in October 2022, the club were in the Bundesliga relegation zone. He guided them to sixth place that season with 50 points, the same total Chelsea recorded in 2015-16 and again last season, although Bundesliga teams play four fewer matches.


In his first full campaign, Alonso transformed the side. Leverkusen added 40 points to their previous total, finishing unbeaten and winning the club’s first Bundesliga title. The improvement was only three points short of the 43-point rise achieved by Conte’s Chelsea.


That transformation demonstrated Alonso’s ability to improve a team rapidly, install a clear tactical identity and turn promising performances into consistent results.

Chelsea’s squad is not identical to that Leverkusen group, and the Premier League is significantly more competitive. Nevertheless, Alonso’s past success shows that a dramatic improvement is not beyond him.


The challenge facing Alonso

Chelsea’s recent instability remains the biggest concern.

The club have changed managers frequently, while several players have struggled to maintain consistent form. Alonso must therefore build a reliable system, improve the team’s finishing and ensure that Chelsea do not collapse during difficult periods.


The squad also needs to handle pressure better. A title challenge requires sustained concentration across 38 matches, not only periods of impressive attacking football.

Chelsea must improve considerably to win the league, but the conditions are more favourable than their 10th-place finish suggests.


Final verdict

Only Leicester and Chelsea have finished outside the top three in one Premier League season before winning the title the next. Repeating that achievement would therefore be extraordinary.

Chelsea is unlikely to be favourites ahead of Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United. Current projections place them closer to a top-five finish than a championship victory, while bookmakers have rated them among the outsiders for the title.